TY -
GEN
AU - Basedau, Matthias
AU - Rustad, Siri Aas
AU - Must, Elise
TI -
Do expectations on oil discoveries affect civil unrest? Micro-level evidence from Mali
KW - natürliche Ressourcen
KW - Rohstoff
KW - Rohstoffvorkommen
KW - innere Sicherheit
KW - Konflikt
KW - Mali
KW - Erdöl
KW - Erdgas
KW - Rohstoffpolitik
KW - Konfliktpotential
KW - Erwartung
KW - politischer Konflikt
KW - Protest
KW - Gewalt
KW - psychosoziale Faktoren
KW - Entwicklungsland
KW - Westafrika
KW - Erdölgewinnung
KW - Erdgasgewinnung
KW - Rohstoffabbau
KW - Rohstoffgewinnung
KW - Ressourcenkonflikt
KW - Innenpolitischer Konflikt
KW - politische Unruhen
KW - Bestimmungsfaktoren der Politik
PY - 2018
N2 - Veröffentlichungsversion
N2 - begutachtet (peer reviewed)
N2 - In: Cogent Social Sciences ; 4 (2018) 1 ; 19
N2 - In recent years, many oil finds were made along the shores of Africa, often triggering high hopes. But do expectations of the consequences of oil discoveries affect subsequent conflict? A number of arguments back this idea. Relative deprivation theory suggests that oil discoveries raise hopes of windfalls, which if not fulfilled, result in frustration and thus increase conflict risk. In contrast, cognitive psychology assumes that the effect of expectations largely works through a confirmation bias and thus depends on whether individuals attach positive or negative expectations to oil discoveries. Given the lack of appropriate data, these relationships have never been tested empirically. Using unique georeferenced data from a representative survey in Mali in 2006, this paper addresses this gap. Our results suggest that expectations indeed significantly contribute to subsequent conflict. The negative or positive character of expectations is critical, working as "self-fulfilling prophecy" rather than frustrated "great expectations": when people hold negative views on the future effects of oil, the risk of civil unrest increases.
UR - http://slubdd.de/katalog?TN_libero_mab2
ER -