Description:
This paper uses both Chinese aggregate and product-level data to investigate the effects of US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports. We find that: First, increasing US trade policy uncertainty reduces Chinese agricultural exports and imports to the US to a greater extent than the traditional exchange rate factor. Second, increasing US trade policy uncertainty reduces total Chinese agricultural exports but increases total Chinese agricultural imports, which is due to a shift in Chinese agricultural imports from North America to South America, Europe, and Asia. Third, the product-level analysis shows that increasing US trade policy uncertainty will not threaten Chinese grain security, but it will cause an increase in import prices of some important products