Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United St… - SLUB Dresden

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Title: Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Contributor: Cramer, Estee Y. [Author] ; Ray, Evan L. [Author] ; Lopez, Velma K. [Author] ; Bracher, Johannes [Author] ; Brennen, Andrea [Author] ; Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J. [Author] ; Gerding, Aaron [Author] ; Gneiting, Tilmann [Author] ; House, Katie H. [Author] ; Huang, Yuxin [Author] ; Jayawardena, Dasuni [Author] ; Kanji, Abdul H. [Author] ; Khandelwal, Ayush [Author] ; Le, Khoa [Author] ; Mühlemann, Anja [Author] ; Niemi, Jarad [Author] ; Shah, Apurv [Author] ; Stark, Ariane [Author] ; Wang, Yijin [Author] ; Wattanachit, Nutcha [Author] ; Zorn, Martha W. [Author] ; Gu, Youyang [Author] ; Jain, Sansiddh [Author] ; Bannur, Nayana [Author] ; Deva, Ayush [Author] ; Kulkarni, Mihir [Author] ; Merugu, Srujana [Author] ; Raval, Alpan [Author] ; Shingi, Siddhant [Author] ; Tiwari, Avtansh [Author] ; White, Jerome [Author] ; Abernethy, Neil F. [Author] ; Woody, Spencer [Author] ; Dahan, Maytal [Author] ; Fox, Spencer [Author] ; Gaither, Kelly [Author] ; Lachmann, Michael [Author] ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel [Author] ; Scott, James G. [Author] ; Tec, Mauricio [Author] ; Srivastava, Ajitesh [Author] ; George, Glover E. [Author] ; Cegan, Jeffrey C. [Author] ; Dettwiller, Ian D. [Author] ; England, William P. [Author] ; Farthing, Matthew W. [Author] ; Hunter, Robert H. [Author] ; Lafferty, Brandon [Author] ; Linkov, Igor [Author] ; Mayo, Michael L. [Author] ; Parno, Matthew D. [Author] ; Rowland, Michael A. [Author] ; Trump, Benjamin D. [Author] ; Zhang-James, Yanli [Author] ; Chen, Samuel [Author] ; Faraone, Stephen V. [Author] ; Hess, Jonathan [Author] ; Morley, Christopher P. [Author] ; Salekin, Asif [Author] ; Wang, Dongliang [Author] ; Corsetti, Sabrina M. [Author] ; Baer, Thomas M. [Author] ; Eisenberg, Marisa C. [Author] ; Falb, Karl [Author] ; Huang, Yitao [Author] ; Martin, Emily T. [Author] ; McCauley, Ella [Author] ; Myers, Robert L. [Author] ; Schwarz, Tom [Author] ; Sheldon, Daniel [Author] ; Gibson, Graham Casey [Author] ; Yu, Rose [Author] ; Gao, Liyao [Author] ; Ma, Yian [Author] ; Wu, Dongxia [Author] ; Yan, Xifeng [Author] ; Jin, Xiaoyong [Author] ; Wang, Yu-Xiang [Author] ; Chen, YangQuan [Author] ; Guo, Lihong [Author] ; Zhao, Yanting [Author] ; Gu, Quanquan [Author] ; Chen, Jinghui [Author] ; Wang, Lingxiao [Author] ; Xu, Pan [Author] ; Zhang, Weitong [Author] ; Zou, Difan [Author] ; Biegel, Hannah [Author] ; Lega, Joceline [Author] ; McConnell, Steve [Author] ; Nagraj, V. P. [Author] ; Guertin, Stephanie L. [Author] ; Hulme-Lowe, Christopher [Author] ; Turner, Stephen D. [Author] ; Shi, Yunfeng [Author] ; Ban, Xuegang [Author] ; Walraven, Robert [Author] ; Hong, Qi-Jun [Author] ; Kong, Stanley [Author] ; van de Walle, Axel [Author] ; Turtle, James A. [Author] ; Ben-Nun, Michal [Author] ; Riley, Steven [Author] ; Riley, Pete [Author] ; Koyluoglu, Ugur [Author] ; DesRoches, David [Author] ; Forli, Pedro [Author] ; Hamory, Bruce [Author] ; Kyriakides, Christina [Author] ; Leis, Helen [Author] ; Milliken, John [Author] ; Moloney, Michael [Author] ; Morgan, James [Author] ; Nirgudkar, Ninad [Author] ; Ozcan, Gokce [Author] ; Piwonka, Noah [Author] ; Ravi, Matt [Author] ; Schrader, Chris [Author] ; Shakhnovich, Elizabeth [Author] ; Siegel, Daniel [Author] ; Spatz, Ryan [Author] ; Stiefeling, Chris [Author] ; Wilkinson, Barrie [Author] ; Wong, Alexander [Author] ; Cavany, Sean [Author] ; España, Guido [Author] ; Moore, Sean [Author] ; Oidtman, Rachel [Author] ; Perkins, Alex [Author] ; Kraus, David [Author] ; Kraus, Andrea [Author] ; Gao, Zhifeng [Author] ; Bian, Jiang [Author] ; Cao, Wei [Author] ; Lavista Ferres, Juan [Author] ; Li, Chaozhuo [Author] ; Liu, Tie-Yan [Author] ; Xie, Xing [Author] ; Zhang, Shun [Author] ; Zheng, Shun [Author] ; Vespignani, Alessandro [Author] ; Chinazzi, Matteo [Author] ; Davis, Jessica T. [Author] ; Mu, Kunpeng [Author] ; Pastore y Piontti, Ana [Author] ; Xiong, Xinyue [Author] ; Zheng, Andrew [Author] ; Baek, Jackie [Author] ; Farias, Vivek [Author] ; Georgescu, Andreea [Author] ; Levi, Retsef [Author] ; Sinha, Deeksha [Author] ; Wilde, Joshua [Author] ; Perakis, Georgia [Author] ; Bennouna, Mohammed Amine [Author] ; Nze-Ndong, David [Author] ; Singhvi, Divya [Author] ; Spantidakis, Ioannis [Author] ; Thayaparan, Leann [Author] ; Tsiourvas, Asterios [Author] ; Sarker, Arnab [Author] ; Jadbabaie, Ali [Author] ; Shah, Devavrat [Author] ; Della Penna, Nicolas [Author] ; Celi, Leo A. [Author] ; Sundar, Saketh [Author] ; Wolfinger, Russ [Author] ; Osthus, Dave [Author] ; Castro, Lauren [Author] ; Fairchild, Geoffrey [Author] ; Michaud, Isaac [Author] ; Karlen, Dean [Author] ; Kinsey, Matt [Author] ; Mullany, Luke C. [Author] ; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin [Author] ; Shin, Lauren [Author] ; Tallaksen, Katharine [Author] ; Wilson, Shelby [Author] ; Lee, Elizabeth C. [Author] ; Dent, Juan [Author] ; Grantz, Kyra H. [Author] ; Hill, Alison L. [Author] ; Kaminsky, Joshua [Author] ; Kaminsky, Kathryn [Author] ; Keegan, Lindsay T. [Author] ; Lauer, Stephen A. [Author] ; Lemaitre, Joseph C. [Author] ; Lessler, Justin [Author] ; Meredith, Hannah R. [Author] ; Perez-Saez, Javier [Author] ; Shah, Sam [Author] ; Smith, Claire P. [Author] ; Truelove, Shaun A. [Author] ; Wills, Josh [Author] ; Marshall, Maximilian [Author] ; Gardner, Lauren [Author] ; Nixon, Kristen [Author] ; Burant, John C. [Author] ; Wang, Lily [Author] ; Gao, Lei [Author] ; Gu, Zhiling [Author] ; Kim, Myungjin [Author] ; Li, Xinyi [Author] ; Wang, Guannan [Author] ; Wang, Yueying [Author] ; Yu, Shan [Author] ; Reiner, Robert C. [Author] ; Barber, Ryan [Author] ; Gakidou, Emmanuela [Author] ; Hay, Simon I. [Author] ; Lim, Steve [Author] ; Murray, Chris [Author] ; Pigott, David [Author] ; Gurung, Heidi L. [Author] ; Baccam, Prasith [Author] ; Stage, Steven A. [Author] ; Suchoski, Bradley T. [Author] ; Prakash, B. Aditya [Author] ; Adhikari, Bijaya [Author] ; Cui, Jiaming [Author] ; Rodríguez, Alexander [Author] ; Tabassum, Anika [Author] ; Xie, Jiajia [Author] ; Keskinocak, Pinar [Author] ; Asplund, John [Author] ; Baxter, Arden [Author] ; Oruc, Buse Eylul [Author] ; Serban, Nicoleta [Author] ; Arik, Sercan O. [Author] ; Dusenberry, Mike [Author] ; Epshteyn, Arkady [Author] ; Kanal, Elli [Author] ; Le, Long T. [Author] ; Li, Chun-Liang [Author] ; Pfister, Tomas [Author] ; Sava, Dario [Author] ; Sinha, Rajarishi [Author] ; Tsai, Thomas [Author] ; Yoder, Nate [Author] ; Yoon, Jinsung [Author] ; Zhang, Leyou [Author] ; Abbott, Sam [Author] ; Bosse, Nikos I. [Author] ; Funk, Sebastian [Author] ; Hellewell, Joel [Author] ; Meakin, Sophie R. [Author] ; Sherratt, Katharine [Author] ; Zhou, Mingyuan [Author] ; Kalantari, Rahi [Author] ; Yamana, Teresa K. [Author] ; Pei, Sen [Author] ; Shaman, Jeffrey [Author] ; Li, Michael L. [Author] ; Bertsimas, Dimitris [Author] ; Skali Lami, Omar [Author] ; Soni, Saksham [Author] ; Tazi Bouardi, Hamza [Author] ; Ayer, Turgay [Author] ; Adee, Madeline [Author] ; Chhatwal, Jagpreet [Author] ; Dalgic, Ozden O. [Author] ; Ladd, Mary A. [Author] ; Linas, Benjamin P. [Author] ; Mueller, Peter [Author] ; Xiao, Jade [Author] ; Wang, Yuanjia [Author] ; Wang, Qinxia [Author] ; Xie, Shanghong [Author] ; Zeng, Donglin [Author] ; Green, Alden [Author] ; Bien, Jacob [Author] ; Brooks, Logan [Author] ; Hu, Addison J. [Author] ; Jahja, Maria [Author] ; McDonald, Daniel [Author] ; Narasimhan, Balasubramanian [Author] ; Politsch, Collin [Author] ; Rajanala, Samyak [Author] ; Rumack, Aaron [Author] ; Simon, Noah [Author] ; Tibshirani, Ryan J. [Author] ; Tibshirani, Rob [Author] ; Ventura, Valerie [Author] ; Wasserman, Larry [Author] ; O’Dea, Eamon B. [Author] ; Drake, John M. [Author] ; Pagano, Robert [Author] ; Tran, Quoc T. [Author] ; Ho, Lam Si Tung [Author] ; Huynh, Huong [Author] ; Walker, Jo W. [Author] ; Slayton, Rachel B. [Author] ; Johansson, Michael A. [Author] ; Biggerstaff, Matthew [Author] ; Reich, Nicholas G. [Author]

Published: National Academy of Sciences, 2022-05-04

Language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000145738; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119

ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490

Keywords: Mathematics

Origination:

Footnote: Diese Datenquelle enthält auch Bestandsnachweise, die nicht zu einem Volltext führen.

Description: Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Access State: Open Access