• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: On the History of Maximum Likelihood in Relation to Inverse Probability and Least Squares
  • Contributor: Hald, Anders
  • Published: Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1999
  • Published in: Statistical Science, 14 (1999) 2, Seite 214-222
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 0883-4237
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: It is shown that the method of maximum likelihood occurs in rudimentary forms before Fisher [Messenger of Mathematics 41 (1912) 155-160], but not under this name. Some of the estimates called "most probable" would today have been called "most likely." Gauss [Z. Astronom. Verwandte Wiss. 1 (1816) 185-196] used invariance under parameter transformation when deriving his estimate of the standard deviation in the normal case. Hagen [Grundzuge der Wahrschein-lichkeits-Rechnung, Dummler, Berlin (1837)] used the maximum likelihood argument for deriving the frequentist version of the method of least squares for the linear normal model. Edgeworth [J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 72 (1909) 81-90] proved the asymptotic normality and optimality of the maximum likelihood estimate for a restricted class of distributions. Fisher had two aversions: noninvariance and unbiasedness. Replacing the posterior mode by the maximum likelihood estimate he achieved invariance, and using a two-stage method of maximum likelihood he avoided appealing to unbiasedness for the linear normal model.
  • Access State: Open Access