Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal
[Verfasser:in]
;
Kotlowski, Jacek
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Miskowiec, Agata
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]
How Forward Looking are Central Banks? Some Evidence from Their Forecasts
Erschienen in:National Bank of Poland Working Paper ; No. 112
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.2043088
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments April 2, 2012 erstellt
Beschreibung:
We estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks (Bank of England, National Bank of Poland and Swiss National Bank) in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward looking in their monetary policy decisions. We find that all three banks are to some extent forward-looking, however to a varying degree. With respect to inflation, the NBP and the SNB look far into the future, while the BoE seems to concentrate on current inflation. As to output, the BoE and the SNB take into account its future or current value while for the NBP this variable is insignificant. We also find that central banks prefer to concentrate on one particular horizon rather than take into account the whole forecast