Burke, Marshall
[Author]
;
Lobell, David
[Other];
Miguel, Edward
[Other];
Dykema, John
[Other];
Satyanath, Shanker
[Other]National Bureau of Economic Research
Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture
imprint:
Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2011
Published in:NBER working paper series ; no. w17092
Extent:
1 Online-Ressource
Language:
English
DOI:
10.3386/w17092
Identifier:
Reproduction note:
Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Origination:
Footnote:
Mode of access: World Wide Web
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files
Description:
A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results