Published:
Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 1987
Published in:NBER working paper series ; no. w2376
Extent:
1 Online-Ressource
Language:
English
DOI:
10.3386/w2376
Identifier:
Reproduction note:
Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Origination:
Footnote:
Mode of access: World Wide Web
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Description:
In this paper we present a model of a balance-of-payments crisis and use it to examine the Argentine experiment with a crawling peg between December 1978 and February 1981. The approach taken allows us to examine the evolution of a crisis when the collapse is not a perfectly-foreseen event. The implementation of the model yields plausible values of the one-month ahead probabilities of a collapse of the crawling peg. The probabilities exhibit a sharp increase in the middle of 1980 and indicate a significant loss of credibility throughout the remainder of the year. The results suggest that viability of an exchange rate regime depends strongly on the domestic credit policy followed by the authorities. If this policy is not consistent with the exchange rate policy pursued by the authorities, confidence in the exchange rate policy is undermined