• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: BACE and BMA variable selection and forecasting for UK money demand and inflation with Gretl
  • Contributor: Błażejowski, Marcin [Author]; Kwiatkowski, Jacek [Author]; Kufel, Paweł [Author]
  • Published: 2020
  • Published in: Econometrics ; 8(2020), 2/21 vom: Juni, Seite 1-29
  • Language: English
  • DOI: 10.3390/econometrics8020021
  • Identifier:
  • Keywords: Bayesian pooling ; model averaging ; model uncertainty ; MPI ; Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: In this paper, we apply Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as an automatic modeling procedures for two well-known macroeconometric models: UK demand for narrow money and long-term inflation. Empirical results verify the correctness of BACE and BMA selection and exhibit similar or better forecasting performance compared with a non-pooling approach. As a benchmark, we use Autometrics-an algorithm for automatic model selection. Our study is implemented in the easy-to-use gretl packages, which support parallel processing, automates numerical calculations, and allows for efficient computations.
  • Access State: Open Access
  • Rights information: Attribution (CC BY)