Description:
Purpose: The study uses the results of an efficiency analysis for digitalization within a retail logistics blue-collar work system of professional truck drivers and aims to elaborate an ex-ante efficiency simulation approach for digitalization scenarios. Methodology: The simulation method combines the efficiency scores of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), statistical bootstrapping, and regression analysis. By increas-ing the original sample size of n=30 truck drivers up to 60,000 samples through 2,000 bootstrap iterations, it is possible to gain a highly significant regression function. Findings: The mathematical simulation approach can be transferred to alternate scenarios in terms of forecasting efficiency development based on the experience distribution of the workforce. Originality: As the impact of digitalization on the efficiency of blue-collar work systems is often unknown, this methodology could provide insights for logistics researchers and managers when estimating the efficiency impact of digitalization.