Einfalt, Thomas
[Author];
Hellmers, Sandra
[Author];
Jasper-Tönnies, Alrun
[Author]
;
Technische Universität Hamburg,
Technische Universität Hamburg Institut für Wasserbau
Urban flood prevention based on ensemble precipitation forecasts
Footnote:
Sonstige Körperschaft: Technische Universität Hamburg
Sonstige Körperschaft: Technische Universität Hamburg, Institut für Wasserbau
Description:
Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model KalypsoHydrology. Ensemble forecast flood hydrographs for the urban catchment Kollau are presented in this work. The range and quantiles are illustrated for a convective storm event in summer 2016. A flood management measure is improved by using precipitation forecasts in a flood control reservoir.