Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments February 9, 2007 erstellt
Description:
This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the economic literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance, (2) overestimation of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overestimation of the quality of one's private signals. Experimental evidence shows that these three types of overconfidence are inconsistent with each other, in the sense that the first two tend to be negatively correlated with each other, and the third tends to reduce both of the first two. On difficult tasks, people overestimate their actual performances but also underestimate their relative performances; on simple tasks, people underestimate their actual performances but also overestimate their relative performances. These errors can be accounted for with a straightforward Bayesian analysis