Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 2007 erstellt
Description:
The Syrian economy is confronted with an increasing pressure coming from the supply side of the labour market, generated by the accumulated surplus in the public sector, the unemployed persons looking for a job, the new entrants on the labour market, respectively the expected increase of the participation rate of feminine labour.The estimated labour surplus in the economy represents 498.2 thousand persons in 2006, the private sector included. The new entrants in the labour market amount to 2401.3 thousand persons over the period 2006 - 2015. In addition, 302.9 thousand unemployed persons should be given a job by the end of the analyzed period. Assuming that the female participation rate will increase from the current 9.2% to 12.3%, 263.7 thousand women will supply their labour force over the period 2006 - 2015. Summarizing, the total expected excess supply of labour, to which the government will be confronted over the next 10 years, represents 3466.1 thousand persons.A total of 451.7 thousand persons will get retired over the period 2006 - 2015, and an addition of 320.4 could be released from the labour market through early retirement. The economic expansion will be able to absorb 1025 thousand persons. If the rate of emigration remains unchanged, then 359.5 thousand persons (potential job demanders) will leave Syria to work abroad over the next ten years. Summarizing, a total of 2156.4 thousand people can be absorbed through the three channels. It implies that the net excess supply of labour to which the economy will be confronted over the next decade represents 1309.7 thousand persons