Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments May 15, 2006 erstellt
Description:
Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the Centre of European Economic Research's Financial Markets Survey, a monthly qualitative survey of around 330 financial experts, we analyze the out-of-sample predictive quality of probability methods and regression methods. Using the modified Diebold-Mariano-Test of Harvey, Leybourne amp; Newbold (1997), we confront the forecasts based on survey methods with the forecasting performance of standard linear time series approaches and simple random walk forecasts