Published in:IMF Working Paper, Vol. , pp. 1-23, 2001
Extent:
1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
Language:
Not determined
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.879838
Identifier:
Origination:
Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments August 2001 erstellt
Description:
This paper presents a bridge model for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the bridge and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries