Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments June 3, 2020 erstellt
Description:
We prove suboptimality of probability matching in prediction tasks with an arbitrary (finite) number of outcomes and repetitions. For the popular case of binary prediction tasks, we also provide a graphical representation of the result. Finally, we relate probability matching to impulse balance equilibrium theory and show when probability matching is consistent with its predictions