Published in:Bank of Italy Occasional Paper ; No. 489, April 2019
Extent:
1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
Language:
English
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3432997
Identifier:
Origination:
Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments April 29, 2019 erstellt
Description:
This work documents the construction of the new quarterly indicator of regional economic activity (Indicatore Trimestrale dell'Economia Regionale – ITER), which uses a parsimonious set of regional variables and combines them by means of temporal disaggregation techniques to obtain a quarterly index that is consistent with the official data on national and regional GDP and marked by a small lag compared with the reference period. The methodology was implemented to produce quarterly indicators for the economies of Italy's four macro-areas in the period 1995-2017. With a view to assessing the performance of the quarterly indicator, a forecasting exercise was conducted regarding annual GDP growth in the four macro-areas for the period 2014-17. The forecasting performance of ITER is in line with that of the indicators developed by other national research institutions