Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments October 28, 2013 erstellt
Description:
We produce predictions of Norwegian GDP. To this end, we estimate a Bayesian Dynamic Factor model on a panel of 14 variables (all followed closely by market operators) ranging from 1990 to 2011. By means of a pseudo real-time exercise we show that the Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model performs well both in terms of point forecast, and in terms of density forecasts. Results indicate that our model outperforms standard univariate benchmark models, that it performs as well as the Bloomberg Survey, and that it outperforms the predictions published by the Norges Bank in its monetary policy report