• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: The economic consequences of R = 1 : towards a workable behavioural epidemiological model of pandemics
  • Contributor: Gans, Joshua [VerfasserIn]
  • imprint: 2022
  • Published in: Review of Economic Analysis ; 14(2022), 1, Seite 3-25
  • Language: English
  • DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.4786
  • ISSN: 1973-3909
  • Identifier:
  • Keywords: epidemiology ; basic reproduction number ; SIR model ; rational behaviour ; pandemic policy ; Pandemic ; SIR ; Behavioural Models of Pandemics ; Aufsatz in Zeitschrift ; Kongressbeitrag
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will tend towards 1 in equilibrium. This motivates taking R = 1 as an equilibrium starting point for analyses of pandemics with behavioural agents. The implications of this for the analysis of widespread testing, tracing, isolation and mask-use is discussed.
  • Access State: Open Access
  • Rights information: Attribution - No Derivs (CC BY-ND)