Description:
The structure of the Polish pension insurance system, despite many reforms carried out in recent years, is still mainly based on the pay-as-you-go (repartition) pillar. To make it work properly, a constant inflow of participants who will pay contributions, thanks to which it will be possible to pay benefits to current beneficiaries, is necessary. At the same time, a negative demographic trend is observed, which can be a signal that more and more people are going to be paid from the system, while fewer people are going to provide money to it. Therefore, the question arises: How much time is there left for repartition-based pension insurance system to last? Is this system really a vehicle of economic and social development or retrograde rather? This article is an attempt to answer such question using the example of the Polish pension insurance system (PIS). To answer this question, linear trend models were used in the analysis. The adjustment of these models to reality was high, and on their basis, the forecasts for the following years were estimated. The variables used in the analysis are time, number of people, and the value of contributions and withdrawals. According to the research, it can be concluded that Polish pension insurance system has about 60 years to last in such form. Demographic changes are definitely unfavorable, and the age gap is getting bigger and bigger. This means that fewer people are going to provide money for those who are inactive.