Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 24, 2022 erstellt
Description:
Using a novel data set based on individual resumes of public firm employees, we propose a monthly index of aggregate labor flow that measures the dynamics of firm employment. We find that the index can predict the economic outputs significantly: an increase in the index leads to greater unemployment and lower economic growth. Moreover, it can also predict the aggregate stock market strongly both in- and out-of-sample, and the predictability delivers sizable economic values in asset allocation. Our findings cannot be explained by existing macro and labor-related variables, suggesting that the index contains unique information