Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 16, 2020 erstellt
Description:
The Brazilian ports are out of capacity, imposing several restrictions to the sector expansion. Some investments have been made, but without improvements in the situation. Ports around the world seems to have the same problem. One of the aspect that implies in this situation are the forecast methods used to understand the short and long term of ports demand. They are based in variables of the ports neglecting the economic panoramic view. The ports operations are influenced for a lot of macroeconomic variables as soon as transport services are not a final sector but a middle one. These paper aims to apply Factorial Models in ports demands forecasting and compare the results with traditional time series models. We focus in the Stock and Watson (2002, 2008, 2012) papers that show that factorial models can generate more efficient forecasts than standard time series and structural models, and can be normally used to predict macroeconomic variable