Reform and Opening-Up Can Make China's Economy Grow by An Average of 5.5% Over the Next 15 Years -Inscription and Simulation of Mathematical Logic Based on the Endogenous of Institutional Distorted Difference
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Title:
Reform and Opening-Up Can Make China's Economy Grow by An Average of 5.5% Over the Next 15 Years -Inscription and Simulation of Mathematical Logic Based on the Endogenous of Institutional Distorted Difference
Footnote:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments December 4, 2022 erstellt
Description:
The mainstream analytical methods of modern economics, such as the Solow model, impose a limitation on the historical interpretation of sources and the future projection of economic growth potential in a transitional country like China, as the model assumes scenarios that are inconsistent with the Chinese system. Specifically, if the Solow model is applied, China's economic growth is projected to be between 2% and 2.5% in the future. It can be argued that the potential for China’s high growth averaging 9.24% from 1978 to 2021 comes from the reform and opening-up that turned TFP growth from negative to positive, the market-oriented reforms that increased factor productivity, the urban housing assetization reform that resulted in a zero-to-market price premium for transactions, and the zero-to-market price premium that occurred from the paid land grants that were directly accounted for in the production method in the GDP. China is still in the process of developing a new market and continues to utilize a dual system where market and planning co-exist, wherein distortions are a constant economic mechanism when compared to the international and domestic market-based segments, and there is a difference between the standard value of a market economy and the distorted value of the dual system. On the one hand, the difference multiplied by resources represents the loss of production, wealth, income, and demand, while the loss divided by the standard value represents the idleness, waste, and contraction of production factors, wealth resources, population income, and population consumption demand. On the other hand, it can be viewed as an institutionally distorted surplus, which, if reforms gradually bring the institutionally distorted value closer to the standard value of the market, will allow the institutionally distorted surplus to be released from the system after a certain period of time. If the reforms gradually bring the value of institutional distortions closer to the market standard, the institutionally distorted surplus will eventually be liberated from the confinement of institutional distortions on all types of potential and become a new dynamic of economic growth. Based on this idea of incorporating production and demand growth functions within the difference interval (y-x), a mathematical logic and calculation method for simulating China’s future economic growth is proposed in this paper. Using this logic, I, along with the laboratory I chair, and in collaboration with a data company, simulate China’s economic growth from 2023 to 2037, and observe factor marketization, land and housing assetization reform, water allocation regulation, and newly available land development on the supply side, and population migration reform, land transaction distribution, and housing supply channel system on the demand side. On the external opening side, maintaining innovation exchanges, stabilizing exports, and continuing to bring in foreign investment, the median level over the next 15 years could yield an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.66%