Description:
The EU's transitions towards sustainability are unfolding in the context of what has been termed a global polycrisis - a convergence of economic, social, and environmental crises which together create systemic risks. Since the launch of the European Green Deal, Europe has faced a multitude of such risks and shocks to its food, water, energy and other crucial systems. These impacts strain policy implementation and coherence, necessitating a strategic balance between short-term action and long-term thinking. At the same time, crises can also sometimes serve to accelerate the EU's sustainability transitions, for example in the areas of energy and circular economy. Despite progress, Europe is still far from achieving many of its 2030 objectives, and the global polycrisis raises further concerns about the EU's security and its economic competitiveness, along with questions of fairness when it comes to distribution of the costs associated with the transition. This forward-looking report is based on collective intelligence harvested through a carefully designed strategic foresight process. While it makes full use of available data and knowledge, it deviates from traditional model and indicator-based assessments, making use of participatory foresight workshops to examine a range of future scenarios. The report suggests strategies to align short-term actions with long-term sustainability goals, addressing competitiveness, security, and fairness. It underscores the need for continuous anchoring of long-term visions in the context of a volatile policy environment, and emphasises the importance of anchoring long‑term sustainability thinking into a range of other policy priorities. There is a risk that growing, multiplying and competing priorities may crowd sustainability out of the EU's policy agenda. This makes effective and transformative governance of sustainability transitions even more crucial for the upcoming five‑year policy cycle. The report proposes ideas for such 'anchoring' of sustainability objectives by reframing priorities to converge with the long-term vision of 'living well within the limits of the planet'.