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Description:
After 10 years of impressive growth, India is now the fourth largest economy in the world. Yet, to date, Indias' impact on global commodity markets has been muted. The authors examine how Indias' domestic and trade policies have distorted and constrained its demand for commodities. They find that Indias' industrial policies have altered the expansion path of its economy, putting the service sector to the forefront and likely reducing Indias' demand for metals. Sector-specific policies, such as those promoting self-sufficiency in agriculture, have altered Indias' demand for food commodities and its supplies of those commodities to international markets. Recent policy reforms in manufacturing have boosted output, which coincides well with an increase in Indias' demand for metals over the past 45 years. Continued policy reforms are likely to diminish the distorting influence of Indias' domestic and trade policies. Indias' demand for energy and metals should rise as some rebalancing occurs in its economic structure.