• Media type: E-Book; Report
  • Title: Large sigma events in the European FX markets: Stylised facts from 273 years of quarterly data
  • Contributor: Abildgren, Kim [Author]
  • imprint: Copenhagen: Danmarks Nationalbank, 2013
  • Language: English
  • Keywords: N23 ; fat tailed distributions ; C14 ; economic history ; G32 ; C58 ; risk management ; F31 ; N24 ; realised exchange-rate volatility ; kernel density estimation
  • Origination:
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  • Description: We offer a closer look at the frequency distribution of nominal price changes in the foreign exchange markets for a sample of 10 European exchange-rate pairs on the basis of a unique quarterly data set spanning 273 years. Our analysis clearly illustrates the risk of seriously underestimating the probability and magnitude of tail events when frequency distributions of nominal exchange-rate changes are derived on the basis of fairly short data samples. We suggest that financial institutions and regulators should have an eye for the long-term historical perspective as a source of inspiration when designing worst case scenarios or severe stress scenarios in relation to risk assessments and stress tests.
  • Access State: Open Access