• Media type: Electronic Conference Proceeding
  • Title: A Spatial Economic Model and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Population Dynamics in Brazilian MCAs
  • Contributor: Elhorst, Paul [Author]; da Silva, Diego Firmino Costa [Author]; da Mota Silveira Neto, Raul [Author]
  • Published: Louvain-la-Neuve: European Regional Science Association (ERSA), 2015
  • Language: English
  • Keywords: Population growth ; C23 ; dynamics ; R23 ; spatial interaction and spillovers
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  • Description: To extend existing population growth models, this article proposes a theoretical setting including spatial interaction effects. Using data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA) over the period 1970-2010, this extension is tested by estimating a dynamic spatial panel model. The authors also compare the performance of a wide range of potential neighborhood matrices using Bayesian posterior model probabilities. Six of the thirteen determinants of population growth considered produce significant spatial interaction effects. Moreover, five produce significant long-term spatial spillover effects; a mathematical analysis reveals the strength of this result, which requires more than a single parameter. Treating areas as independent entities, as many previous population growth studies have done, underestimates the impact of various policy measures.
  • Access State: Open Access