• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: Non-Bayesian updating: A theoretical framework
  • Contributor: Epstein, Larry G. [Author]; Noor, Jawwad [Author]; Sandroni, Alvaro [Author]
  • imprint: New York, NY: The Econometric Society, 2008
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1555-7561
  • Keywords: Non-Bayesian updating ; law of small numbers ; temptation and self-control ; D81 ; overreaction ; learning ; underreaction
  • Origination:
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  • Description: This paper models an agent in a multi-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans. Choice-theoretic axiomatic foundations are provided to capture updating biases that reflect excessive weight given to either prior beliefs, or alternatively, to observed data. A counterpart of the exchangeable Bayesian learning model is also described.
  • Access State: Open Access