• Media type: Report; E-Book
  • Title: The FOMC risk shift
  • Contributor: Kroencke, Tim-Alexander [Author]; Schmeling, Maik [Author]; Schrimpf, Andreas [Author]
  • imprint: Frankfurt a. M.: Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, 2021
  • Language: English
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3774275
  • Keywords: G10 ; G12 ; Fund Flows ; Equity Premium ; Portfolio Rebalancing ; Price Pressures ; Monetary Policy Surprises ; E44
  • Origination:
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  • Description: We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of stock price movements around FOMC announcements; (ii) that they are accompanied by significant investor fund flows, suggesting that investors react heterogeneously to monetary policy news; and (iii) that price pressure amplifies the stock market response to monetary policy news. Our results imply that central bank information effects are overshadowed by short-term dynamics stemming from investor rebalancing activities and are likely to be more difficult to identify than previously thought.
  • Access State: Open Access