Coal transitions—part 1: a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences

Media type: E-Article

Title: Coal transitions—part 1: a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences

Contributor: Diluiso, Francesca [Author]; Walk, Paula [Author]; Manych, Niccolò [Author]; Cerutti, Nicola [Author]; Chipiga, Vladislav [Author]; Workman, Annabelle [Author]; Ayas, Ceren [Author]; Cui, Ryna Yiyun [Author]; Cui, Diyang [Author]; Song, Kaihui [Author]; Banisch, Lucy A. [Author]; Moretti, Nikolaj [Author]; Callaghan, Max W. [Author]; Clarke, Leon [Author]; Creutzig, Felix [Author]; Hilaire, Jérôme [Author]; Jotzo, Frank [Author]; Kalkuhl, Matthias [Author]; Lamb, William F [Author]; Löschel, Andreas [Author]; Müller-Hansen, Finn [Author]; Nemet, Gregory F. [Author]; Oei, Pao-Yu [Author]; Sovacool, Benjamin K. [Author]; [...]

Published: Bristol: IOP Publishing, 2021

Language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b58

Keywords: evidence synthesis ; coal transitions ; systematic map ; climate change mitigation ; political economy

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Description: A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising ...

Access State: Open Access

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