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Description:
The ocean mixed layer is an important interface for the interactions between ocean and atmosphere as well as the heat fluxes between them. The sea surface temperature thereby influences weather patterns and, for example, the formation of tropical cyclones. Investigations of the heat budget of the mixed layer in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific indicate that vertical diffusive heat fluxes occur through the mixed layer base, associated with turbulent mixing. Microstructure measurements support the hypothesis of rare but intense vertical mixing events, resulting in cooling of the surface layer induced by near-inertial waves. These are mainly excited by fluctuations in the wind field. Uncertainty exists regarding the energy input into the ocean caused by wind; various estimates range between 0.3 and 1.5 TW. Similarly, there is little observational data on the intense vertical mixing induced by near-inertial waves mixed layer base. Therefore, there is interest in predicting events with high near-inertial energy in order to collect observational data. Here, a forecast system for near-inertial energy is evaluated on the basis of historical wind forecasts and analyses, especially with regard to the tropical north-eastern Atlantic. The quality of the forecasts varies seasonally as well as spatially with better skill scores in summer than in winter. The forecast system provides good forecasts of near-inertial events for two to three days and can be used in this period to guide measurement campaigns of high near-inertial energy events.