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Hasegawa, T. [Author]; Fujimori, S. [Author]; Frank, S. [Author]; Humpenöder, F. [Author]; Bertram, C. [Author]; Després, J. [Author]; Drouet, L. [Author]; Emmerling, J. [Author]; Gusti, M. [Author]; Harmsen, M. [Author]; Keramidas, K. [Author]; Ochi, Y. [Author]; Oshiro, K. [Author]; Rochedo, P. [Author]; van Ruijven, B. [Author]; Cabardos, A. [Author]; Deppermann, A. [Author]; Fosse, F. [Author]; Havlik, P. [Author]; Krey, V. [Author]; Popp, A. [Author]; Schaeffer, R. [Author]; van Vuuren, D. [Author]; Riahi, K. [Author]

Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

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  • Media type: E-Article
  • Title: Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
  • Contributor: Hasegawa, T. [Author]; Fujimori, S. [Author]; Frank, S. [Author]; Humpenöder, F. [Author]; Bertram, C. [Author]; Després, J. [Author]; Drouet, L. [Author]; Emmerling, J. [Author]; Gusti, M. [Author]; Harmsen, M. [Author]; Keramidas, K. [Author]; Ochi, Y. [Author]; Oshiro, K. [Author]; Rochedo, P. [Author]; van Ruijven, B. [Author]; Cabardos, A. [Author]; Deppermann, A. [Author]; Fosse, F. [Author]; Havlik, P. [Author]; Krey, V. [Author]; Popp, A. [Author]; Schaeffer, R. [Author]; van Vuuren, D. [Author]; Riahi, K. [Author]
  • Published: Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), 2021-12
  • Published in: Nature Sustainability
  • Language: English
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w
  • Origination:
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  • Description: Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.