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Luderer, G. [Author]; Madeddu, S. [Author]; Merfort, L. [Author]; Ueckerdt, F. [Author]; Pehl, M. [Author]; Pietzcker, R. [Author]; Rottoli, M. [Author]; Schreyer, F. [Author]; Bauer, N. [Author]; Baumstark, L. [Author]; Bertram, C. [Author]; Dirnaichner, A. [Author]; Humpenöder, F. [Author]; Levesque, A. [Author]; Popp, A. [Author]; Rodrigues, R. [Author]; Strefler, J. [Author]; Kriegler, E. [Author]

Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios

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  • Media type: E-Article
  • Title: Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
  • Contributor: Luderer, G. [Author]; Madeddu, S. [Author]; Merfort, L. [Author]; Ueckerdt, F. [Author]; Pehl, M. [Author]; Pietzcker, R. [Author]; Rottoli, M. [Author]; Schreyer, F. [Author]; Bauer, N. [Author]; Baumstark, L. [Author]; Bertram, C. [Author]; Dirnaichner, A. [Author]; Humpenöder, F. [Author]; Levesque, A. [Author]; Popp, A. [Author]; Rodrigues, R. [Author]; Strefler, J. [Author]; Kriegler, E. [Author]
  • Published: Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), 2022-01
  • Published in: Nature Energy
  • Language: English
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
  • Origination:
  • Footnote: Diese Datenquelle enthält auch Bestandsnachweise, die nicht zu einem Volltext führen.
  • Description: Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.
  • Access State: Open Access