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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control
Contributor:
Kortessis, Nicholas;
Simon, Margaret W.;
Barfield, Michael;
Glass, Gregory E.;
Singer, Burton H.;
Holt, Robert D.
Published:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020
Published in:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (2020) 48, Seite 30104-30106
Language:
English
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2018286117
ISSN:
0027-8424;
1091-6490
Origination:
Footnote:
Description:
Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional R t —the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional R t , and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.