Woolhouse, M. E. J.;
Dye, C.;
Etard, J.-F.;
Smith, T.;
Charlwood, J. D.;
Garnett, G. P.;
Hagan, P.;
Hii, J. L. K.;
Ndhlovu, P. D.;
Quinnell, R. J.;
Watts, C. H.;
Chandiwana, S. K.;
Anderson, R. M.
Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: Implications for the design of control programs
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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: Implications for the design of control programs
Contributor:
Woolhouse, M. E. J.;
Dye, C.;
Etard, J.-F.;
Smith, T.;
Charlwood, J. D.;
Garnett, G. P.;
Hagan, P.;
Hii, J. L. K.;
Ndhlovu, P. D.;
Quinnell, R. J.;
Watts, C. H.;
Chandiwana, S. K.;
Anderson, R. M.
imprint:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1997
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Description:
<jats:p>From an analysis of the distributions of measures of transmission rates among hosts, we identify an empirical relationship suggesting that, typically, 20% of the host population contributes at least 80% of the net transmission potential, as measured by the basic reproduction number,<jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub>0</jats:sub>. This is an example of a statistical pattern known as the 20/80 rule. The rule applies to a variety of disease systems, including vector-borne parasites and sexually transmitted pathogens. The rule implies that control programs targeted at the “core” 20% group are potentially highly effective and, conversely, that programs that fail to reach all of this group will be much less effective than expected in reducing levels of infection in the population as a whole.</jats:p>