Description:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>
<jats:p>The rapid rate of urbanization within the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed (UCW) is threatening the provision of ecosystem services (ESs) for six million residents of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This study uses the land cover change model TerrSet to project future land cover from 2016 to 2040. The modular toolset InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) is used to assess the efficacy of four land use policies in maintaining the provision of three ESs (carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and water quality) within the UCW. The Baseline scenario represents past urbanization trends, whereas the Urbanization scenario accounts for a higher urban growth rate. The Plan 2040 scenario includes existing policy guidelines, and the Conservation scenario adds forested riparian buffer areas. Two integrated indexes and an economic valuation of ESs were used to combine all ESs and analyze the overall performance of each policy. The first index uses unequal weights for ESs based on the Analytical Hierarchical Process, whereas the second index uses equal weights. The values of both integrated indexes and economic values were highest in the Conservation scenario and lowest in the Urbanization scenario. No significant differences in the provision of ESs were found between the Baseline and the Plan 2040 scenarios. However, the integrated indexes and economic values for both land use policies declined over time. Our study will feed into the ongoing movement of sustainable watershed management for ensuring the provision of ESs, especially for rapidly urbanizing cities worldwide, in general, and in the United States, in particular.</jats:p>