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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness
Contributor:
Kayser, Mark Andreas;
Lindstädt, René
Published:
Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2015
Published in:
Political Analysis, 23 (2015) 2, Seite 242-253
Language:
English
DOI:
10.1093/pan/mpv001
ISSN:
1047-1987;
1476-4989
Origination:
Footnote:
Description:
Electoral competitiveness is a key explanatory construct across a broad swath of phenomena, finding application in diverse areas related to political incentives and behavior. Despite its frequent theoretical use, no valid measure of electoral competitiveness exists that applies across different electoral and party systems. We argue that one particular type of electoral competitiveness'electoral risk'can be estimated across institutional contexts and matters most for incumbent behavior. We propose, estimate, and make available a cross-nationally applicable measure for elections in 22 developed democracies between 1960 and 2011. Unlike extant alternatives, our measure captures vote volatility and is constructed at the party (not system) level, exogenous to most policy predictors, and congruent with the perceptions and incentives of policy-makers.