Sánchez‐Mercado, Ada;
Rodríguez‐Clark, Kathryn M.;
Miranda, Jhonathan;
Ferrer‐Paris, José Rafael;
Coyle, Brian;
Toro, Samuel;
Cardozo‐Urdaneta, Arlene;
Braun, Michael J.
How to deal with ground truthing affected by human‐induced habitat change?: Identifying high‐quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin
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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
How to deal with ground truthing affected by human‐induced habitat change?: Identifying high‐quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin
Contributor:
Sánchez‐Mercado, Ada;
Rodríguez‐Clark, Kathryn M.;
Miranda, Jhonathan;
Ferrer‐Paris, José Rafael;
Coyle, Brian;
Toro, Samuel;
Cardozo‐Urdaneta, Arlene;
Braun, Michael J.
Description:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Species distribution models (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">SDM</jats:styled-content>) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">SDM</jats:styled-content> accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (<jats:italic>Spinus cucullatus</jats:italic>), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">SDM</jats:styled-content> inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground‐truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">RF</jats:styled-content>) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EVI</jats:styled-content>) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960–2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km<jats:sup>2</jats:sup>) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground‐truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EVI</jats:styled-content>, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km<jats:sup>2</jats:sup>, in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity‐friendly agri‐ and silviculture programs.</jats:p>