Description:
<jats:title>A<jats:sc>bstract</jats:sc>
</jats:title>
<jats:p>In the next decade, a number of experiments will attempt to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy. Feasibility studies for such experiments generally determine the statistic <jats:inline-formula>
<jats:tex-math>$ \overline{{\varDelta {\chi^2}}} $</jats:tex-math>
</jats:inline-formula>. As the hierarchy is a discrete choice, Δχ<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> does not obey a one degree of freedom χ<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> distribution and so the number of <jats:italic>σ</jats:italic>’s of sensitivity to the hierarchy is not the square root of <jats:inline-formula>
<jats:tex-math>$ \overline{{\varDelta {\chi^2}}} $</jats:tex-math>
</jats:inline-formula>. We present a simple Bayesian formula for the sensitivity to the hierarchy determination that can be expected from the median experiment as a function of <jats:inline-formula>
<jats:tex-math>$ \overline{{\varDelta {\chi^2}}} $</jats:tex-math>
</jats:inline-formula>.</jats:p>