• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: Reframing the Guardianship Dilemma: How the Military’s Dual Disloyalty Options Imperil Dictators
  • Contributor: PAINE, JACK
  • Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2022
  • Published in: American Political Science Review, 116 (2022) 4, Seite 1425-1442
  • Language: English
  • DOI: 10.1017/s0003055422000089
  • ISSN: 0003-0554; 1537-5943
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: <jats:p>Dictators confront a guardianship dilemma: military agents are needed to defeat mass outsider movements, but these agents can overthrow the ruler from within. In existing theories, rulers prioritize coup-proofing measures unless they anticipate strong outsider threats. Then dictators prioritize military competence. I reframe the guardianship dilemma around the central idea that militaries can choose between dual disloyalty options. In addition to staging a coup, militaries can defect by not fending off popular uprisings or rebellions. Dictators fear competent militaries not primarily because of their coup threat but instead because they often survive intact following a regime transition. Low motivation for competent militaries to save the ruler undermines their rationale of guarding against outsider threats, even if they pose a low coup threat. Consequently, rulers prioritize competence under narrow circumstances. Only radically oriented outsider movements that pose an existential threat to all regime elites induce loyalty from a competent military.</jats:p>