• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy
  • Contributor: Goodhead, Robert; Kolb, Benedikt
  • Published: Wiley, 2024
  • Published in: Economica (2024)
  • Language: English
  • DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12550
  • ISSN: 0013-0427; 1468-0335
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: AbstractUsing high‐frequency identification, we provide evidence that Fed communication surprises have larger macroeconomic effects than surprise actions. Three ingredients are central to show this: structurally distinguishing between Fed actions and communication, controlling for the Fed information effect, and including the surprise measures directly in a vector autoregression (VAR) system instead of using them as instruments. We also compare the macroeconomic effects of Fed communication surprises relating to varying horizons into the future. Fed communication with a two‐year horizon appears most powerful during the effective lower‐bound period, consistent with theoretical predictions regarding Fed forward guidance.