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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
Petroleum demand forecasting for Taiwan using modified fuzzy‐grey algorithms
Contributor:
Lu, Shin‐Li;
Tsai, Chen‐Fang
Published:
Wiley, 2016
Published in:
Expert Systems, 33 (2016) 1, Seite 60-69
Language:
English
DOI:
10.1111/exsy.12129
ISSN:
0266-4720;
1468-0394
Origination:
Footnote:
Description:
AbstractIn this paper, we adopt the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method to develop the residual modification EWMA grey forecasting model REGM(1,1) and combines it with fuzzy theory to derive the fuzzy REGM or the FREGM(1,1) model. The proposed model is used to forecast annual petroleum demand in Taiwan. The experimental results show that the mean absolute percentage errors, median absolute percentage error, and symmetric mean absolute percentage error of FREGM(1,1) model are higher by 23.71, 12.26, and 23.06% respectively, compared with those obtained using the traditional GM(1,1) model.