• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents
  • Contributor: Horii, Ryo; Ono, Yoshiyasu
  • imprint: Wiley, 2022
  • Published in: International Journal of Economic Theory
  • Language: English
  • DOI: 10.1111/ijet.12322
  • ISSN: 1742-7355; 1742-7363
  • Keywords: Economics and Econometrics
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>In a simple continuous‐time model where the learning process affects the willingness to hold liquidity, we provide an intuitive explanation of business cycle asymmetry and postcrisis slow recovery. When observing a liquidity shock, individuals rationally increase their subjective probability of re‐encountering it. It leads to an upward jump in liquidity preference and a discrete fall in consumption. Conversely, as a period without shocks continues, they gradually decrease the subjective probability, reduce liquidity preference, and increase consumption. The recovery process is particularly slow after many shocks are observed within a short period because people do not easily change their pessimistic view.</jats:p>