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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES
Contributor:
Carbone, Robert;
Gorr, Wilpen L.
Published:
Wiley, 1985
Published in:
Decision Sciences, 16 (1985) 2, Seite 153-160
Language:
English
DOI:
10.1111/j.1540-5915.1985.tb01480.x
ISSN:
0011-7315;
1540-5915
Origination:
Footnote:
Description:
ABSTRACTExperiments contrasted judgmental and objective forecast methods. Judgmental methods included “eyeball” extrapolation of time‐series plots and judgmental adjustment. Objective methods included Box‐Jenkins (BJ), Carbone‐Longini AEP filtering (CL), Holt‐Winters (HW), and other smoothing techniques. Objective methods proved more accurate than eyeball extrapolation. However, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy of some objective forecasts.