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Media type:
E-Article
Title:
A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League
Contributor:
Koopman, Siem Jan;
Lit, Rutger
Published:
Oxford University Press (OUP), 2015
Published in:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 178 (2015) 1, Seite 167-186
Language:
English
DOI:
10.1111/rssa.12042
ISSN:
0964-1998;
1467-985X
Origination:
Footnote:
Description:
SummaryWe develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which assumes a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity coefficients that change stochastically over time. The dynamic model is a novelty in the statistical time series analysis of match results in team sports. Our treatment is based on state space and importance sampling methods which are computationally efficient. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is verified in a betting strategy that is applied to the match outcomes from the 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 seasons of the English football Premier League. We show that our statistical modelling framework can produce a significant positive return over the bookmaker's odds.