• Media type: E-Article
  • Title: PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a “lazy” algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge
  • Contributor: Juslin, Peter; Persson, Magnus
  • imprint: Wiley, 2002
  • Published in: Cognitive Science
  • Language: English
  • DOI: 10.1207/s15516709cog2605_2
  • ISSN: 0364-0213; 1551-6709
  • Origination:
  • Footnote:
  • Description: <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>PROBEX (PROBabilities from EXemplars), a model of probabilistic inference and probability judgment based on generic knowledge is presented. Its properties are that: (a) it provides an exemplar model satisfying bounded rationality; (b) it is a “lazy” algorithm that presumes no pre‐computed abstractions; (c) it implements a hybrid‐representation, <jats:italic>similarity‐graded probability</jats:italic>. We investigate the <jats:italic>ecological rationality</jats:italic> of PROBEX and find that it compares favorably with Take‐The‐Best and multiple regression (Gigerenzer, Todd, &amp; the ABC Research Group, 1999). PROBEX is fitted to the point estimates, decisions, and probability assessments by human participants. The best fit is obtained for a version that weights frequency heavily and retrieves only two exemplars. It is proposed that PROBEX implements speed and frugality in a psychologically plausible way.</jats:p>
  • Access State: Open Access