Description:
<jats:p>This paper focuses on the Dirichlet and the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions to analyze one definition of the cycle based on three economic performance regimens: augmentation, stagnation and diminution. We use data from 142 economies grouped in seven clusters during the second half of the last century, a period which has witnessed various structural changes. Furthermore, this paper advances to investigate what the probabilities are of reaching significant positive growth rates ⎯the frequency of the augmentation regimen⎯ which prevailed during the decade from 1950 to 1960, using Bayesian statistics.</jats:p>