Description:
<jats:p>Abstract. In the Northern Hemisphere, recurrence of transient synoptic-scale Rossby
wave packets in the same phase over periods of days to weeks, termed RRWPs,
may repeatedly create similar surface weather conditions. This recurrence
can lead to persistent surface anomalies. Here, we first demonstrate the
significance of RRWPs for persistent hot spells in the Southern Hemisphere
(SH) using the ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis dataset and then examine the role of RRWPs
and blocks for heatwaves over south-eastern Australia (SEA). A Weibull regression analysis shows that RRWPs are statistically associated
with a significant increase in the duration of hot spells over several
regions in the SH, including SEA. Two case studies of heatwaves in SEA in
the summers of 2004 and 2009 illustrate the role of RRWPs in forming
recurrent ridges (anticyclonic potential vorticity – PV – anomalies), aiding in
the persistence of the heatwaves. Then, using a weather-station-based
dataset to identify SEA heatwaves, we find that SEA heatwaves are more
frequent than climatology during days with extreme RRWPs activity over SEA
(high RSEA). On days with both high RSEA and heatwaves, circumglobal zonal wavenumber 4 and 5 (WN4, WN5) anomaly patterns are present in the composite
mean of the upper-level PV field, with an anticyclonic PV anomaly over SEA.
The Fourier decomposition of the PV and meridional wind velocity fields
further reveals that the WN4 and WN5 components in the suitable phase aids
in forming the ridge over SEA for days with high RSEA. In addition, we
find anomalous blocking over the Indian and the South Pacific oceans during
SEA heatwaves, which may help to modulate the phase of RRWPs.
</jats:p>