Dooley, Michael P.
[Verfasser:in]
;
Folkerts-Landau, David
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Garber, Peter M.
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]National Bureau of Economic Research
Erschienen:
Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2014
Erschienen in:NBER working paper series ; no. w20454
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.3386/w20454
Identifikator:
Reproduktionsnotiz:
Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Mode of access: World Wide Web
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Beschreibung:
The revived Bretton Woods framework we proposed in 2003 remains a useful way to understand the international financial system. We document that the system survived the 2008 crisis. Looking forward, we argue that the system will continue to evolve as we expected. China is likely to graduate from the periphery to the center in the next few years. This graduation process could be smooth or associated with recurrent financial crises. During this transition the magnitude of net capital outflows from the periphery will continue to depress real interest rates in industrial countries at every phase of the business cycle. Finally, recent policy initiatives suggest that India is poised to replace China as the dominant periphery country