• Medientyp: E-Book
  • Titel: Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle : Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data
  • Beteiligte: Dew-Becker, Ian [VerfasserIn]; Giglio, Stefano [Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]
  • Körperschaft: National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Erschienen: Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020
  • Erschienen in: NBER working paper series ; no. w27864
  • Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource; illustrations (black and white)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.3386/w27864
  • Identifikator:
  • Schlagwörter: 1980- ; Aktienoption ; Risiko ; Konjunktur
  • Reproduktionsnotiz: Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  • Entstehung:
  • Anmerkungen: System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files
    Mode of access: World Wide Web
  • Beschreibung: This paper presents a novel and unique measure of cross-sectional uncertainty constructed from stock options on individual firms. Cross-sectional uncertainty varied little between 1980 and 1995, and subsequently had three distinct peaks -- during the tech boom, the financial crisis, and the coronavirus epidemic. Cross-sectional uncertainty has had a mixed relationship with overall economic activity, and aggregate uncertainty is much more powerful for forecasting aggregate growth. The data and moments can be used to calibrate and test structural models of the effects of uncertainty shocks. In international data, we find similar dynamics and a strong common factor in cross-sectional uncertainty. The data is available on our websites. A companion paper [Dew-Becker and Giglio, "Real-time forward-looking skewness over the business cycle"] finds firm-level skewness is significantly procyclical
  • Zugangsstatus: Freier Zugang