• Medientyp: E-Book
  • Titel: Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries
  • Beteiligte: Beraja, Martin [VerfasserIn]; Wolf, Christian [VerfasserIn]
  • Körperschaft: National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Erschienen: Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
  • Erschienen in: NBER working paper series ; no. w29304
  • Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource; illustrations (black and white)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.3386/w29304
  • Identifikator:
  • Schlagwörter: Konjunktur ; Nachfrage ; Verbraucher ; Dauerhafte Konsumgüter ; Shift-Share-Analyse ; Nachfragetheorie des Haushalts ; USA ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
  • Reproduktionsnotiz: Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
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    Mode of access: World Wide Web
  • Beschreibung: We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with expenditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy
  • Zugangsstatus: Freier Zugang